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Forecast Discussion for Boise, ID
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000 FXUS65 KBOI 050848 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 248 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Isolated showers this morning across southwest Idaho as the well-defined shortwave continues northward across south-central Idaho. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across the West Central and Boise Mountains (50% chance) today. The remainder of the area will be humid but dry. Satellite showing the next stronger low pressure system, off the coast of southern California at 08z, will move north-northeast into central California on Tuesday. Dynamics from this system will extends well north of the center reaching the Nevada border late Tuesday afternoon. Effective shear of 25-35 kts and CAPEs around 1000 j/kg combined with deep layer moisture already in place would support organized thunderstorm development. Despite higher surface dew points, model sounding along the Nevada border show inverted-v profiles supporting gusty winds threat along with a hail and heavy rain threat. These thunderstorms will move northward through the evening weaken significantly was the they reach the Boise mountains/Treasure Valley where instability and dynamics will be weaker. However, gusty outflow winds could effect many location through the area. The upper level low moves over southern Nevada on Wednesday keeping the northern flank of the low along the Nevada border. This will once again allow well organized thunderstorms to redevelop along the Nevada border and in the central Idaho Mountains. These will once again bring gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding will be possible especially along the Nevada border. Temperatures will remain above normal. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...An upper level low will be located over EC CA and southern NV to begin the long term period. This low will drift northward toward our area, moving into SE OR Friday. Saturday, this low will drift into western OR as a new low develops over southern CA. This new CA low will then drift north into NV by Monday. This is the same basic pattern we have been seeing for quite a while now, and therefore we will see more of the same - showers and thunderstorms each aft/eve, occasionally lasting overnight. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal Thu and near normal during the remainder of the period. Moisture will continue to be well-above normal, meaning we will see a continued threat of heavy rain and flash flooding, along with gusty winds and small hail. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers with a small chance of a thunderstorm through 05/18Z. Then showers and thunderstorms mainly over the ID side - causing heavy rain, mountain obscurations, and gusty outflow winds up to 35 kt - decreasing after 06/02Z. Surface winds: variable 5-10 kt through 05/17Z, then N-NE 5-15 kt through 06/03Z. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: N-NE 5-15 kt in eastern OR and much of the Idaho side, except W 10-15kt near KTWF/KJER through 06/00Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....SP AVIATION.....SP |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Boise, ID (BOI) Office Forecast Discussions.
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