Emmett Weather

000
FXUS65 KBOI 190304
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
904 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...A dry northwest flow aloft will be accompanied by
clear to mostly clear skies through Friday. Light winds and
mostly clear skies will allow for another cold morning with lows
in the 20s and 30s, including pockets of sub-freezing temps in
the Treasure Valley. Temperatures rebound to within a couple
degrees of normal in the afternoon. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Surface winds: variable
less than 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR, mostly clear skies. Winds variable less than 10 kt.

Weekend Outlook...VFR and high clouds Friday and Saturday.
Clouds lowering Saturday evening into Sunday, with scattered
MVFR showers and mountain obscuration developing in the Baker
County and West Central ID mountains. Improvement by Sunday
evening. Snow levels generally 6000-7500 ft MSL during showers.
Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less Friday, SW-SE 5-15 kt
Saturday, and W-NW 10-25 kt Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...A dry NW flow on
Friday will give way to a shortwave ridge Saturday. Tonight will
see seasonably cold temperatures across the region again with a
frost or freeze possible in the Snake Plain. Probability of a
freeze remains in the 40-60% range with the higher probabilities
in typically colder/sheltered spots. Periods of high clouds are
possible Friday, especially across southern zones, otherwise the
ridge will keep clear skies over the region through much of
Saturday, which will be the warmest day. Clouds increase
Saturday night as the ridge axis shifts eastward. Moisture aloft
and a weak upper trough will introduce a slight chance of
showers across the e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho
mountains Saturday night. Temperatures on Saturday will reach
about 10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...A weak shortwave trough will
pass over northern Idaho on Sunday, bringing a slight chance of
rain and high elevation snow showers to the West Central
Mountains and Baker County, OR. An upper level ridge will begin
to build into the region on Monday, bringing a warming trend to
the area. Temperatures will be slightly above normal through
Monday, with highs reaching 10-15 degrees above normal on
Tuesday. The Boise metro area currently has a 30-40% chance of
breaking 80F on Tuesday. Model agreement on the storm track
starts to dissipate by Wednesday, when deterministic and
ensembles vary the speed of the incoming upper level low from
British Columbia. Some advance it quickly, bringing a slight
chance of precipitation with cooler temperatures as early as
Wednesday morning, while others delay it to Wednesday night.
Regardless of timing, there is agreement in a cooler and wetter
pattern by the end of the long term period.

 &&

AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies with a few high level clouds
through the day. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt except E-SE 10-20
kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Snake River Valley, then variable
less than 10 kt after 19/04Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
variable 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR, some mid level cumulus clouds this afternoon. Winds SE
10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming N-NW or variable 4-7 kt at
19/00Z.

Weekend Outlook...VFR and high clouds Friday and Saturday.
Clouds lowering Saturday evening into Sunday, with scattered
MVFR showers and mountain obscuration developing in the Baker
County and West Central ID mountains. Improvement by Sunday
evening. Snow levels generally 6000-7500 ft MSL during showers.
Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less Friday, SW-SE 5-15 kt
Saturday, and W-NW 10-25 kt Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SA