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Forecast Discussion for Boise, ID
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503 FXUS65 KBOI 280257 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 857 PM MDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .DISCUSSION...Precipitation development this evening remains focused along a boundary near the ID/OR border. We`ve seen showers and thunderstorms produce light to moderate rain this evening with the highest amounts reported in the Boise Mountains where 0.50-0.75" has fallen. This area precipitation will continue through late evening, then gradually weaken as it shifts east early Monday morning. While the thunderstorm threat is likely over for most, can`t rule out a strike/flash or two through midnight. Gusty NW winds will hold on over SE Oregon overnight, diminishing towards sunrise before ramping up again on Monday. No updates to the current forecast for this evening. && .AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorm coverage decreasing into the overnight hours as existing showers move south into NV. Ceilings early Monday morning in West-Central Mountains valleys should stay in MVFR, however small chance (10%) of IFR conditions. Mountains obscured through Monday morning. Ceilings in Western Magic Valley stay at most MVFR early Monday morning, with small chance (10%) of IFR at KTWF, and larger chance (30%) of IFR at KJER. Surface winds: N-NW 10-20 kt. Gusts in SE OR early morning Monday 15-25 kt decreasing into morning hours. Gusts in SW ID 15-25 kt beginning in the morning. Winds aloft at 10kft: Mostly N-NW 15-30 kt this afternoon. KBOI...VFR. Showers decreasing overnight. Ceilings below 6000` through 0900 UTC. Variable winds as precip moves out becoming NW 10 kt. Winds late morning into afternoon NW at 10-15 gusting 20 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...At 2 PM MDT showers were increasing in the southern 2/3 of our CWA, with thunderstorms in Owyhee County, and beginning to form in the Upper Weiser River Valley. Showers were moving westward in Idaho and southwestward in Oregon around an upper low centered in northern Utah. Meanwhile, a cold front was forming in western Idaho and acquiring moisture from the east. Latest models have increased QPF along the frontal band as it moves slowly eastward this afternoon and evening. Instability should develop more thunderstorms along the front late today and early evening, with heavy rain the main concern. To the west of the front, in Oregon, showers will be much lighter. Total rainfall, just for tonight, will be .20 to 50 inch near the frontal band, with .10 to .20 inch elsewhere in Idaho. Eastern Oregon will have less than .05 inch, except up to .30 inch near the Idaho border. But eastern Oregon will also be our windiest area, with northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph expected until sunset. By Monday morning the cold front will be east of our CWA and showers will decrease or end, except in south-central Idaho where they will linger through the day. Despite the cold front, high temps Monday will change little from today. Monday night and Tuesday will be several degrees cooler under mostly clear skies. Monday will be breezy in and near the western Magic Valley with west winds 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. On Tuesday models show another trough approaching from the northwest, with more showers mainly in the Idaho mountains Tuesday and Tuesday night, but less than .10 inch of rain expected. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Warming and drying as high pressure dominates Wednesday through Friday evening. Temperatures warm from about 5 degrees above normal Wednesday to 10-15 degrees above normal by Friday. Friday evening through next Sunday, as a high amplitude trough approaches the west coast, it becomes a closed low and follows the coast south. This will be favorable for a few days of showers and thunder- storms as the moisture flow remains relatively fixed over the area. A cold front passage Friday night drops temps to 5-10 degrees below normal next weekend. Models have decent agreement for the long range forecast, so confidence is high in the unsettled weather next weekend. Friday evening could be particularly interesting with the above normal surface temperatures and high amplitude trough bringing cold air aloft. Right now, the later timing of the cold front and moisture is slightly limiting thunderstorm potential Friday evening, but there is still a 10-20% chance of thunder both Friday and Saturday evenings. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...DG AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JM |
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