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Forecast Discussion for Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 021712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1012 AM MST Sat Mar 2 2024

.DISCUSSION...Shower coverage has contracted this morning behind
the overnight frontal passage. This lull won`t last long as
daytime heating will fuel redevelopment by afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy precipitation,
wind gusts to 45 mph and graupel or small hail. In the mountains
showers/storms will bring locally heavier snow with 1-2"/hr
snowfall rates. This could locally impact travel in the
mountains where snow accumulation on roadways is possible above
4500 feet. Winds across s-central Idaho will remain gusty
through this afternoon tapping into 40-50kt flow aloft. Current
forecast is on track.


.AVIATION...Snow/graupel showers will increase across the
area this afternoon. MVFR/IFR and localized LIFR will develop in
showers. Outside of showers, mainly VFR conditions will prevail
under low to mid level clouds. Isolated thunderstorms developing
this afternoon. Showers will decrease this evening. Mountains
obscured. Surface winds: SW 10-25 kt, with gusts to 35 kt near
the NV border. Winds becoming variable less than 10 kt after
03/03Z. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: SW 20-35 kt.

Sunday Outlook...A band of light snow will move across the area
Sunday morning, then scattered snow/graupel showers will develop
Sunday afternoon. MVFR/IFR and localized LIFR conditions will
develop in snow, with mainly VFR conditions otherwise. Mountains
obscured. Surface winds: W-SW 10-20 kt.


SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night... An anomalously cold
and deep upper level trough remains just off the Pacific NW
Coast, with near record cold air aloft for the date just
offshore. A rather impressive cumulus field exists on satellite
over the NE Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska, also indicative of
the extremely cold air aloft. A strong cold front is tracking
across eastern OR early this morning with gusty winds up to 40
mph along the front, isolated thunderstorms and snow showers.
The front will track across SW Idaho later this morning and move
past the Magic Valley after midday. Snow showers will follow in
the wake of the cold front, as 500 mb temperatures fall to -35
to -38C this afternoon, which is near record cold on the
historical BOI sounding climatology. To put it in perspective,
this happens about once every 10 years, based on the ECMWF
reforecasts. This cold air aloft will provide steep lapse
rates, and with March sun angles, it won`t take much surface
heating to get showers and isolated thunderstorms going during
this afternoon and Sunday/Monday afternoons. This is a good
pattern for significant snows in the mountains, although snow
accumulations will be highly variable due to the showery nature
of the precipitation, so snow totals will vary greatly over
short distances. Have a feeling that current snow forecast may
be underdone. Temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees below
normal over the short term with snow levels falling to the
surface at all locations behind the cold front today.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Tuesday through
Wednesday morning an upper trough will be moving through our
area, bringing cooler and wetter weather. Tuesday will begin
with widespread precipitation, generally decreasing through the
day and finally dissipating by Wednesday morning. Snow levels
will be at valley floors in the morning hours, rising to around
3500 ft MSL in the afternoon: supporting light valley snow
accumulation, but much more in the mountains. Winds may be gusty
Tuesday as the trough will be just west of us. A brief weak
ridge builds Wednesday before a shortwave passes on Thursday,
bringing a 25% chance of afternoon showers. Guidance is not in
total agreement in showing the shortwave developing, so there is
some uncertainty in whether we see any precipitation. Through
the rest of the period a high amplitude ridge builds, signaling
a warming trend and a break from unsettled conditions. At the
very end of the long term period, models show a deep trough and
associated moisture approaching the Pac NW coast, though the
timing of its arrival and its intensity is unclear. Temps
through the period are about 10 degrees below normal, rising to
just below normal Fri/Sat.


ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon IDZ015-016-028>030.



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