Emmett Weather

233
FXUS65 KBOI 291057
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
457 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry today, with near normal temperatures.

- Precipitation chances increasing across higher terrain Friday
  afternoon. Becoming widespread Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

- A drying and warming trend will set in Monday, through at
  least midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/...
Issued 120 AM MDT THU OCT 29 2026
This afternoon will feature warmer temps and increasing high-
clouds in southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures this afternoon
will be around 60 degrees in lower elevations of SW-Idaho and
in the 50s in the Oregon high desert and higher Idaho basins. A
weak shortwave will move northeast over the area this evening.
While moisture availability remains somewhat limited, sufficient
moisture will advect northward to south-central Idaho to
support isolated to scattered showers late Thursday night
through Friday. As this shortwave departs, a brief dry period
will occur Friday night, barring a continued 20-50% chance of
precipitation in the far eastern portions of our CWA.

Come Halloween, a closed low with an elongated southern trough
will begin encroaching upon our area. Ahead of this trough, a
good pull of Pacific moisture will overspread our area, allowing
for precipitable water values to reach around the 90th
percentile in southwest Idaho. This moisture will allow for
increasing precipitation chances across the area through
Saturday, peaking Saturday evening and night (60-90% chance,
highest in SW-Idaho) as the greatest forcing for ascent
overspreads our area. The day shift made a good argument for a
Mary Poppins costume, as an umbrella would make a good addition
to any costume for evening festivities. Over the course of
Saturday evening through Sunday, liquid precipitation totals are
generally 0.5-1 inch in northern mountains, 0.20-0.50 inches in
lower elevations and southern mountains, and then 0.01 to 0.20
in eastern Oregon.

The southwesterly flow aloft will keep snow-levels elevated to 6.5-
8.5 kft MSL with the bulk of the precipitation, limiting snow
accumulations across the area. While they will eventually lower to
3.5-5kft MSL behind the cold front, which passes through the area
Sunday, this will coincide with as precipitation tapers off
behind the departing system. This will keep much of the snow
above 6.5kft MSL, with totals trending down with the snow levels
trending higher. Over the course of the same period above,
elevations above 6.5kft MSL would see a dusting to a few inches
of snow (although the highest peaks in the Sawtooths could see
several).

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued 120 AM MDT THU OCT 29 2026
Showers will continue through Sunday, tapering off throughout the
day as the system departs, with QPF details in the short-term. Snow
levels Sunday will have lowered to 4.5-6.5kft MSL (increasing from
west to east), allowing for a chance of snow/wintry mix down to
around 4.5 kft MSL Sunday in E-Oregon, with little to no
accumulation expected that low. Sunday afternoon and evening
will feature gusty winds following the cold frontal passage,
with west to northwest gusts of 20-40 mph (strongest in the
typical windy portions of the Snake River Plain.

Beginning Monday, the area will be dry with a warming trend through
Thursday, although seasonable temperatures are anticipated
throughout. While there will be multiple opportunities for weak
shortwaves to pass over the area, moisture will be limited and the
shortwaves will just result in periods of increased high clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday through Friday/...
Issued 457 AM MDT THU OCT 29 2026

Generally VFR with increasing clouds throughout the period.
A low (