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Forecast Discussion for Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 050848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
248 AM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Isolated showers
this morning across southwest Idaho as the well-defined shortwave
continues northward across south-central Idaho. The best chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be across the West Central and
Boise Mountains (50% chance) today. The remainder of the area
will be humid but dry.

Satellite showing the next stronger low pressure system, off the
coast of southern California at 08z, will move north-northeast
into central California on Tuesday. Dynamics from this system will
extends well north of the center reaching the Nevada border late
Tuesday afternoon. Effective shear of 25-35 kts and CAPEs around
1000 j/kg combined with deep layer moisture already in place
would support organized thunderstorm development. Despite higher
surface dew points, model sounding along the Nevada border show
inverted-v profiles supporting gusty winds threat along with a
hail and heavy rain threat. These thunderstorms will move
northward through the evening weaken significantly was the they
reach the Boise mountains/Treasure Valley where instability and
dynamics will be weaker. However, gusty outflow winds could effect
many location through the area. The upper level low moves over
southern Nevada on Wednesday keeping the northern flank of the low
along the Nevada border. This will once again allow well
organized thunderstorms to redevelop along the Nevada border and
in the central Idaho Mountains. These will once again bring gusty
winds, small hail and heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding
will be possible especially along the Nevada border. Temperatures
will remain above normal.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...An upper level low will be
located over EC CA and southern NV to begin the long term period.
This low will drift northward toward our area, moving into SE OR
Friday. Saturday, this low will drift into western OR as a new low
develops over southern CA. This new CA low will then drift north
into NV by Monday. This is the same basic pattern we have been
seeing for quite a while now, and therefore we will see more of the
same - showers and thunderstorms each aft/eve, occasionally lasting
overnight. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal Thu
and near normal during the remainder of the period. Moisture will
continue to be well-above normal, meaning we will see a continued
threat of heavy rain and flash flooding, along with gusty winds and
small hail.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers with a small chance of a
thunderstorm through 05/18Z. Then showers and thunderstorms mainly
over the ID side - causing heavy rain, mountain obscurations, and
gusty outflow winds up to 35 kt - decreasing after 06/02Z. Surface
winds: variable 5-10 kt through 05/17Z, then N-NE 5-15 kt through
06/03Z. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: N-NE 5-15 kt in eastern OR and
much of the Idaho side, except W 10-15kt near KTWF/KJER through






Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Boise, ID (BOI) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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