Emmett Weather

559
FXUS65 KBOI 292114
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
214 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...A weak short
wave trough moving through the larger scale ridge over the
western US has brought clouds into our CWA, with a few light
show showers or flurries over northern mountains. The trough
will exit east this evening but clouds will continue as another
weak Pacific trough comes inland. On Friday the second trough
will exit east and clouds will decrease. The persistent main
ridge will then amplify over the western US resulting in
warming aloft and intensifying the inversion in the valleys
below through the weekend. Local fog and stratus will develop
in the night and morning hours in the relatively cold, moist
valleys. Latest forecast has corrected a slight cold bias
noted in recent forecasts.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure
will continue to build over our area on Sunday, with the axis
shifted slightly east thanks to an incoming trough into the Pacific
Northwest. This trough will help push moisture into our region,
allowing for modest cloud cover over most of the region on Sunday
and Monday. The trough and associated cold front will then move
just north of our region, keeping our region mostly dry with
far northern areas in Baker County and the West Central Mountains
seeing a 20-30% chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers.
Model runs have steadily trended this system north, so there is
increasing forecast confidence in little impacts from this system
on Monday and Tuesday.

The ridge will then rebuild into a blocking high pressure system
by Wednesday, diminishing any more precipitation chances through
the long term forecast period. This high pressure will bring a
return to valley inversions with cold temperatures and patchy
fog in lower elevations. The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day
outlook looks to favor above normal temperatures (30-40% chance)
and a return to precipitation with a 30-40% chance of above
normal precipitation for this time of year. However, given the
pattern we`ve seen this year with near stationary patterns and
persistent high pressure systems, I would not get my hopes up.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Currently MVFR-IFR in patchy valley fog
and stratus in area valleys, mixing out by late morning. Patchy
fog and stratus again overnight, with LIFR/IFR conditions in
sheltered mountain valleys with snow cover (KMYL) and brief MVFR
conditions near other valley terminals. Light snow showers are
possible (